Since 2018, investment, exports, and consumption have shown varying degrees of pressure. The market performance has continued to be sluggish and the overall transaction has been inactive.
Focus on the energy equipment (oil service, coal machine) with a booming trend. Our investment strategy focuses on two basic lines: a basic starting point. The basic starting point is to adhere to a good company with excellent fundamentals. The two main lines are cyclical industries with significant marginal changes in industry demand, and the other is a growth industry with long-term industrial logic.
The first main line focuses on the energy equipment represented by oil service and coal machine: the oil service inflection point is established. This year, the oil price continued to rise to a new high of nearly three years, and the oil oil broke through 85 US dollars/barrel. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current international crude oil market is tightly balanced between supply and demand. The supply and demand gap is widened due to the supply contraction brought by geopolitical factors. From the market expectation, considering that the United States will produce the third largest oil for OPEC in early November. The country’s sanctions against Iran have been expected to continue to rise. The oil price center pushed up capital expenditures and gradually improved the fundamentals of the industry. The orders of the oil service companies rebounded significantly. In addition, under the background of “energy security”, domestic oil and gas investment is expected to further accelerate, and it is recommended to recommend Jerly shares (002,353).
The second main line focuses on industrial lasers and aerial work platforms with long-term logic. Laser processing is an advanced processing method with higher efficiency and better processing precision. Under the background of localization of core components, the cost of laser equipment is expected to decline rapidly, driving the overall speed of penetration, and the long-term prospects of the industrial chain are promising. Focus on the domestic leading laser of laser fiber laser.
Industry key recommendation combination:
Key recommendation combinations: Ruike Laser, Zhejiang Dingli (603338, stock bar), Jerry shares, construction machinery, Zheng coal machine (601717, shares it).
Mainly covered companies: Jack shares, Sany Heavy Industry (600031, shares it), Eddie Precision, Hongya CNC, Precision Electronics, Yi Zhi Mi (300415, shares), CIMC (000039, shares), Eston ( 002747, shares it), Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316, shares it) and so on.
In September, the combination was Ruike Laser, Zhejiang Dingli, Jerry, Construction Machinery, and Pioneer Intelligence. Portfolio (equal weight) performance in September +6.49%, CITIC Machinery Industry Index +0.25%, CSI 300+3.13%, GEM index -1.66%, combined performance better than industry and major composite index.
Other key sub-sectors
Basic combing:
The performance of the coal machine is highly certain: coal production and sales are booming, coal prices are driving the coal enterprises to improve their profits, capital expenditures are gradually released, and the coal machinery industry continues to recover under the demand for equipment renewal, with the focus on Zheng coal.
The nuclear power restart can be expected: At present, the AP1000 world's first three-door No. 1 has commercial conditions, and the subsequent AP1000 units will have the conditions for approval. Under the circumstances that the nuclear power policy is warming up and the nuclear power projects are getting better, the domestic nuclear power is expected to restart. Focus on recommending shares (603308, shares it), Jiangsu Shentong (002438, shares it).
Semiconductor industry: China is the world's largest semiconductor consumer market. With the gradual transfer of production capacity to China and the establishment of a favorable policy environment created by the state's support, China's semiconductor equipment industry chain companies have ushered in excellent development opportunities, with a focus on recommending North China and Changhua. Chuan Technology, to pure technology.
Aerial work platform: The aerial work platform is the most cost-effective equipment for aerial work. It is competitive with traditional scaffolding and other aerial work equipment. The demand for foreign mature markets is stable, and the domestic emerging markets are developing rapidly. The long-term growth path is determined. The industry has a huge room for growth, with a focus on Zhejiang Dingli.
